Taiwan survey: nearly half doubt US defence commitments as TRUMPD–XIJINP talks loom

Nearly half of Taiwanese say they lack confidence that Washington will keep sending military aid and selling weapons to the island, according to an annual United Daily News poll reported by the South China Morning Post.

The survey put 47% not confident the United States would continue assistance and arms sales, slightly above the 44% who still are. Nine per cent offered no view. UDN has run the series since 2010; the paper called the sub-50% confidence figure “deeply worrying” given that Taipei’s security still leans on US commitments while mainland China keeps military pressure on the table.

Expectations about whether US troops would actually fight for Taiwan keep flipping. Two years ago 49% thought Washington would send forces; last year 49% thought it would not. This year the split is 47% expect troops versus 43% who do not — another year of thin majorities, not a settled alliance story.

Stalled arms package meets a crowded Xi–Trump calendar

The numbers land as a proposed US$14 billion arms package for Taiwan remains delayed and Beijing presses Washington on weapons sales ahead of a Donald J. Trump (TRUMPD) meeting with Xi Jinping (XIJINP). SCMP sources say Trump could push the delay toward year-end, with further encounters possible at APEC and a G20 stop in Florida.

William Yang of the International Crisis Group argued Beijing wants longer delays to deepen doubt in Taiwan and among US allies about Indo-Pacific staying power. Jennifer Kavanagh of Defence Priorities said Chinese interlocutors she hears from want the package cancelled, not merely paused — while rejecting the idea that Trump is simply “trading Taiwan” for commercial deals. Economic calm with Beijing, she said, is still enough to keep the package on the back burner, possibly into 2027 if the leaders meet again this year.

F-16s stuck in Hawaii, confidence on the island

Uncertainty over new sales sits next to delays on gear Taiwan already bought. The first two of 66 F-16 Block 70 fighters ordered by Taipei are still in Hawaii a month after leaving the continental US, after an aborted onward flight earlier this month. Technical, tanker and weather explanations circulate; Taiwanese politicians still hear a political whisper around the summit calendar. No public proof ties the hold to summit politics.

Kuomintang legislator Lin Pei-hsiang said late deliveries help explain the poll: if weapons do not arrive on schedule or match what Taiwan needs, public confidence “would inevitably suffer.” Former security official Su Chi went further, calling fresh US arms approvals “very, very low” after Beijing’s May objections to Trump.

On the island’s own risk map, 56% still call cross-strait military relations tense — little changed year-on-year, below the 2022 peak of 64%. Average war-likelihood on a 1–10 scale sits at 4.4, flat over five years but 1.2 points higher than a decade ago. Asked open-ended what drives tension most, respondents most often named Taiwan independence.

What the civic tape is pricing

On PolitiCap, this is not a prediction market for invasion day. It is a civic market where politician tickers and national composites hold virtual stakes in political capital — attention, alliance credibility, and accountability signals readers can track with dibs.

William Lai Ching-te (LAICT) leads Taiwan under the DPP while the Taiwan Index (TAIWAN) bundles the island’s political capital tape. TRUMPD and XIJINP remain the dual-track heavyweights: US arms discretion on one side, mainland reunification pressure on the other. When a domestic poll says fewer than half trust the US aid channel, that is crowd attention hitting alliance credibility — the kind of accountability signal the game is built to surface, not bury under cable-news noise.

Readers who want skin in the framing can open free accounts, claim the signup bonus in dibs (virtual DutchBud credits on a closed-loop ledger), and watch how LAICT, TRUMPD and XIJINP trade as summit week and the stalled package move the narrative. The quotes are play credits on a civic fintech rail — a digital wallet and virtual bank for political capital, not a licensed open-banking product and not a casino cash-out.

Source: South China Morning Post. Rewritten for the PolitiCap game.